Hope everyone is enjoying this Holiday Season! As I reflect on the past year in cybersecurity, I can’t help but to think back on a research paper I wrote sometime around 2007. I was looking for something interesting to write about, and I started picking up this stack of Wall Street Journals that were in the corner waiting to be read. What was astounding is what I found! There were more cybersecurity breaches on the front page of those papers than you can imagine. As I perused those pages, I somehow put together some predictions as they were about where I thought things were headed. Well, this year proved me to be right on almost every single one of those outlandish predictions. Here were some of the things that I discussed in that paper. I believe it may be posted to my LinkedIn profile for your reading enjoyment.
* Airlines would be impacted by a breach.
* The power grid among other infrastructure would be a major target
* Banks are breached everyday, and don’t report it publicly
* Entire data centers would be hijacked by digital pirates, the only thing stopping them was the
throughput of the network.
* SaaS would be the beginning of I-WAR
I don’t know how accurate I was, but does any of this sound familiar? We are now living in a new era. Our way of doing business and even how we obtain credit is rapidly becoming antiquated. Attacks are becoming more sophisticated and brazen then I could have ever imagined. So, enjoy the lull, the calm before the storm because if next year is anything like last year, it is shaping up to be one wild ride. So – rest up, I’ll see you all on the other side. My prediction for 2018 – the Power Grid goes down in the U.S. due to cyberattacks. Where do you think next year will take us?

Topic

[bbhallParticipant]

I haven’t had a chance to read your article as yet but you were certainly right on the money with some of your predictions and I (unfortunately) agree that this could be the year where parts of, if not, the whole grid may be brought down intentionally, especially as Industry 4.0 dramatically increases our potential attack surface. Our scariest nightmare scenario would be such a cyber attack on the grid coordinated with a large-scale terrorist attack which would severely complicate emergency response among other things. Assuming the perpetrator is a state actor, as they would almost certainly be, this would very likely trigger a US military response, so in very short order, the world would change drastically. I certainly hope that we’re both wrong about what 2018 has in store and I am not someone who tends to be alarmist but the vulnerabilities and the threats are too real to pretend otherwise.

[cybercuriousmegParticipant]

A cyberattack on US infrastructure is quite likely. Nation state adversaries are becoming more and more brazen (think North Korea with Wanacry and Russia with the Ukrainian power grid) and there is no meaningful international framework to deter or enforce consequences for such behavior. There’s really nothing short of a military response to discourage experimentation, or more dedicated offensive efforts, in this arena. There is a desperate need for some sort of cyber diplomacy in the middle ground….

[thornyfl46Participant]

Your scenario is quite scary, but I agree, also quite realistic. Technological development and dependency is far out-pacing efforts to improve stabilization and resiliency. Thus, not only is a major incident likely, but almost certain. The big question, as you hinted to, is how does society look on the other side of a large-scale incident, especially if it is a state-sponsored event? Are we still a free society, or have we surrendered our freedom for peace and safety as Benjamin Franklin feared? Sobering thoughts for me.

[cyberashParticipant]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts from your research paper. I too agree that we are at risk of an attack through Infrastructure. Many countries focus their resources on advancing technology and unfortunately want to demonstrate their progress through hacking. As bbhall stated, this will most likely lead to a military response. It should be a priority in 2018 to establish some international policies to tackle these concerns preemptively.

[Author]

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